Region-by-region view

In the below you can select each individual region to visually represent the economic impact of Brexit estimate one by one. The figure that is plotted plots the synthetic control estimate of gross-value added in a region against the actually measured estimate.

Select a region:

Estimate of Brexit cost in the West Midlands

Estimates for 2022 by region

Below table provides the estimated cost of Brexit in the year 2022 for each of the UK's region evaluated for the year 2022. The numbers are in millions of pounds. With the exception of Northern Ireland, Brexit appears to afford an economic cost on all of the UK's regions. The costs are, however, in absolute terms largest in London.
Code Region MAPE RAPE RMSPE Ensemble (avg) Ensemble (sim)
Different model estimates
TLC North East -3194.32 -2940.53 -3474.91 -2726.94 -2744.40
TLD North West -12765.79 -10581.69 -12765.79 -8448.46 -8287.94
TLE Yorkshire and The Humber -6313.50 -6313.50 -6313.50 -4056.28 -4158.12
TLF East Midlands -7706.56 -7706.56 -7706.40 -4853.91 -4808.15
TLG West Midlands -10608.99 -11193.41 -11193.41 -10644.51 -10555.65
TLH East -6558.22 -7409.15 -7219.12 -6515.81 -6535.31
TLI London -34565.20 -27142.56 -30223.62 -29509.78 -29359.54
TLJ South East -13114.79 -11830.85 -13114.79 -10964.41 -10959.99
TLK South West -7699.56 -8026.85 -7699.56 -6399.07 -6365.60
TLL Wales -3880.17 -3938.11 -3938.08 -3219.73 -3210.27
TLM Scotland -9606.02 -9828.46 -9606.02 -8640.00 -8592.67
TLN Northern Ireland -723.54 -723.54 -723.54 -569.13 -604.09

District-by-district estimates